SemiAnalysis explains its case for SpaceX reaching 10GW of AI compute by 2027

SemiAnalysis hosts Jordan Schneider, Jeremy, and Rick to explain their forecast that SpaceX could turn its target of approaching 10 gigawatts of AI compute by the end of 2027 into a very large short-term cloud business. Their model assumes frontier-model APIs can earn about $100 million per megawatt each year, allowing scarce, quickly available capacity to be sold at a premium, with Microsoft presented as the likeliest large buyer while its own data-centre buildout catches up. The discussion tests that thesis against sites, turbines, permits, labour, NVIDIA chip supply, financing, and lower service guarantees. The $300 billion annual recurring revenue figure and the Microsoft forecast are SemiAnalysis projections, not confirmed SpaceX guidance or a disclosed Microsoft contract; chip availability, execution, demand, regulation, and model-safety concerns remain material uncertainties.